If the ice cap at the North Pole continues to shrink, which of the following is not a likely outcome?

The outcome of penguin populations increasing is not likely to stem from the shrinking ice cap at the North Pole. This is mainly because penguins primarily inhabit the Southern Hemisphere, particularly in regions such as Antarctica, and not the Arctic, where the North Pole is located. As such, changes in the Arctic environment, including the loss of ice, would have minimal direct impact on penguin populations.

Conversely, the other outcomes are relevant to the ecological consequences of melting ice in the Arctic. Rising sea levels are expected as polar ice caps and glaciers continue to melt, contributing to the overall increase in ocean water levels. Habitat for polar bears, which depend on sea ice for hunting seals, will decline due to shrinking ice coverage. Additionally, Arctic biodiversity is at risk as many species rely on ice-covered habitats that are declining, leading to disruptions in food webs and community dynamics.

Thus, the expectation that penguin populations would increase due to conditions in the North Pole fails to align with the ecological realities of the species' distribution and the specific impacts of climate change on polar ecosystems.